What Pope Francis’ new cardinals reveal about the future conclave

A record number of 140 cardinals could attend an eventual conclave in the Sistine Chapel. There would have been 141, but the death of Cardinal Miguel Ángel Ayuso Guixot on November 25 reduced the number. In total, the Sacred College now has 255 members.

The number of cardinal electors is the most critical data that emerges from this weekend’s consistory. Of the 140 cardinal electors, 110 have been created by Pope Francis, 24 by Pope Benedict XVI and six by Saint John Paul II. At the end of the year, on December 24, the Indian Cardinal Oswald Gracias, created cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2007, will turn 80 and will therefore no longer be able to participate in a conclave.

Another 14 cardinals will turn 80 in 2025. These are cardinals Christoph Schöenborn, Fernando Vérgez Alzaga, Celestino Aós Braco, George Alencherry, Carlos Osoro Sierra, Robert Sarah, Stanisław Ryłko, Joseph Coutts, Vinko Puljić, Antonio Cañizares Llovera, Vincent Nichols , Jean-Pierre Kutwa, Nakellentuba Ouédraogo and Timothy Radcliffe.

Two of them were created cardinals by Saint John Paul II, four by Benedict XVI and eight by Pope Francis.

However, we will have to wait until May 2026 to return to the figure of 120 cardinal electors established by Saint Paul VI and never repealed.

The elections of Pope Francis

For the first time, there is now a cardinal in Iran, Archbishop Dominique Matthieu of Tehran-Ispahan, a Belgian missionary. It is also the first time there has been a cardinal in Serbia, with Archbishop Ladislav Nemet of Belgrade receiving the red cap.

Pope Francis has created cardinals from 72 different nations, and 24 of those nations have never had a cardinal before.

Pope Francis has also shown that he does not choose based on the traditional cardinal sees. For example, there are no cardinals to lead the two historic European patriarchates of Lisbon and Venice, nor in Milan, Florence or Paris.

However, there are exceptions. In this consistory, Pope Francis created the archbishops of Turin and Naples in Italy as cardinals; Lima, in Peru; Santiago de Chile; Toronto; and the vicar general of the diocese of Rome.

Naples made the list somewhat surprisingly, and the Pope’s decision was communicated in a statement from the Holy See Press Office on November 4. Archbishop Domenico Battaglia of Naples replaced Bishop Paskalis Bruno Syukur of Bogor, Indonesia, who had asked Pope Francis to remove him from the list of new cardinals for unspecified personal reasons.

The geographical balance of the College of Cardinals

The Pope did not decide to replace a possible Indonesian cardinal with another cardinal from Asia.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Italian cardinals in the College of Cardinals is the lowest in history, at least in modern times. Only during the so-called Avignon Captivity (1309-1377) was the percentage of Italian cardinals so low.

However, to the 17 from Italy we must add Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, who is included in the Asian quota, and Cardinal Giorgio Marengo, ordinary of Mongolia, also in Asia.

Cardinal Angelo Becciu is considered a non-elector, but this status is yet to be determined. Pope Francis had asked him to renounce his cardinal prerogatives, but has continued to invite him to consistories and Masses, where he has always been among the cardinals. If a decision is not made beforehand, the College of Cardinals, by majority vote, will decide whether or not Cardinal Becciu will be admitted to the conclave.

Regional distribution

The balance remains the same. In addition to the four Italian cardinals with voting rights, Europe has received three more cardinals: Archbishop of Belgrade Ladislav Nemet (58 years old), Archbishop Rolandas Makrickas (52), coadjutor archpriest of the papal basilica of Saint Mary Major since March , and the Dominican priest Timothy Radcliffe (79). Europe now has 55 cardinals.

Latin America has received five new cardinals. The purple has reached dioceses that have received it several times – with Bishop Carlos Gustavo Castillo Mattasoglio (74) in Lima and Bishop Fernando N. Chomali Garib (67) in Santiago de Chile – or just once – with Bishop Luis Gerardo Cabrera Herrera (69) in Guayaquil, Ecuador; and Bishop Jaime Spengler (64, who is also president of CELAM) in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

The red biretta of Mons. Vicente Bokalic Iglic (72), Archbishop of Santiago del Estero, is also a first. However, in this case, the ground was already prepared with the recent decision to transfer the title of Primate of Argentina from Buenos Aires to this headquarters. In total, Latin America now has 24 cardinals (among them Cardinal Celestino Aos Braco, Emeritus of Santiago de Chile, born in Spain).

Asia has received four new cardinals. The Pope presented the red hat to Bishop Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi, archbishop of Tokyo, 66, and to the bishops of two dioceses that have never had a cardinal at their head: Bishop Pablo Vigilio Siongo David, 65, of Kalookan ( Philippines) and Bishop Dominique Joseph Mathieu, 61, archbishop of Tehran.

Africa has received two new cardinals, bringing the continent’s total to 18. The two new ones are Archbishop Jean-Paul Vesco, 62, in Algiers, and Archbishop Ignace Bessi Dogbo, 63, in Abidjan (Coast of Ivory).

North America now has 14 electors, with the addition of the Archbishop of Toronto, Francis Leo (53). Oceania has four electors, with the creation of Bishop Mykola Bychok, of the Melbourne Eparchy of Saints Peter and Paul of the Ukrainians, as cardinal. At 44 years old, he has become the youngest member of the College of Cardinals.

National representation

Italy continues to be the most represented nation in the conclave, with 17 electors (plus two more in Asia). The United States has 10 cardinal electors and Spain has seven (with another three in Morocco, Chile and France).

Brazil has increased to 7 electors and India to 6. France remains with 5 electors, to which Archbishop Vesco has joined in North Africa. Cardinal François-Xavier Bustillo, Bishop of Ajaccio, is anagraphically Spanish although naturalized French.

Argentina and Canada join Poland and Portugal with four cardinal electors, while Germany is tied with the Philippines and Great Britain with three.

The weight of the cardinal electors engaged in the Curia, in other Roman functions or in the nunciatures, has decreased, like that of the Italians. There will be 34 out of 140, a historic low.

Of the 21 new cardinals, 10 (all electors) belong to religious orders and congregations, another record. The number of religious electors in the Sacred College has increased from 27 to 35. The Friars Minor joined the Salesians with five and surpassed the Jesuits, who remain at 4. The Franciscan family grows to 10 electors (5 Minors, 3 Conventuals and 2 Capuchins). The Lazarists and Redemptorists number 2.

What would a possible conclave be like?

This does not necessarily mean that the conclave will be “like Francis.” Not only do the new cardinals have very different profiles, but they have not yet had much opportunity to get to know each other. The Popes have also used consistories to bring together cardinals and discuss topics of general interest.

Pope Francis had done it only three times: in 2014, when he talked about the family; in 2015, when the reform of the Curia was discussed; and in 2022, when the apostolic constitution was discussed Preach the Gospelor the reform of the Curia now defined and promulgated.

At this last meeting, the cardinals were divided into linguistic groups, with fewer possibilities of speaking together in the assembly. This scenario makes the vote very uncertain.

Another fact that must be taken into account is that until the election of Saint John Paul II, the cardinals gathered in the conclave were staying in makeshift accommodation in the Apostolic Palace, near the Sistine Chapel. John Paul II had the Domus Sanctae Marthae (House of Saint Martha) renovated precisely to guarantee the cardinals who would elect his successor more suitable accommodation.

Today, however, Pope Francis lives in the Domus Sanctae Marthae. This means that, after the death of the Pope, at least the apartment where the pontiff lives must be sealed, as is the papal apartment. Sealing a Domus floor also means losing a considerable number of rooms. And with such a large number of voters, it also means running the risk of not having enough rooms to accommodate all the cardinals.

Electors could be placed in empty apartments within the Vatican City State, but this would further isolate them. In practice, there is a risk that, during the conclave, the cardinals will not always be able to be together to discuss the election.

For these reasons, although Pope Francis has created more than two-thirds of the cardinal electors, it is by no means certain that the Pope elected in a future conclave will have the same profile as Pope Francis.

Translated and adapted by the ACI Prensa team. Originally published in CNA.