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What can we expect from the ceasefire in Gaza?

What can we expect from the ceasefire in Gaza?

Exhausted, Israelis and Palestinians hold their breath and pray that the peace plan between Hamas and Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump, will lead to real and lasting peace.

Having been disappointed countless times before, local people and Catholic Church leaders remain hopeful but realistic.

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“It is good news, and we are very happy. It is a first step, the first phase” of the plan, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, said in a statement on October 9. “Of course, there are many (other steps), and there will surely be other obstacles. But now we have to rejoice at this important step that will bring a little more confidence for the future and will also bring new hope, especially to the people, both Israeli and Palestinian.”

Trump’s multi-phase peace plan contains 20 points, including an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees; the disarmament and marginalization of Hamas; the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops; the unrestricted entry of humanitarian aid; and the establishment of an international peacekeeping force.

So far, Israeli and Hamas officials have only agreed on the first phase of the plan, which calls for the return of the 48 Israelis and foreigners still held hostage by Hamas in Gaza. Only 20 of the hostages are believed to be alive.

The plan also calls for the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences for murder, 22 minors and another 1,700 detained since the start of the war, which began when Hamas carried out its massacre on October 7, 2023. The remains of 360 terrorists will also be handed over. The exchange could take place on October 13, the White House reported.

As Pope Francis did before him, Pope Leo Most have taken refuge in the Holy Family parish compound, the only Catholic church in Gaza.

The community has refused to leave the compound in the heart of Gaza City, although the Israeli army ordered all civilians to leave the city before intensifying its fight against Hamas militants. In July, an Israeli tank shell hit the church, killing three Christians and wounding several others.

At the end of Mass in St. Peter’s Square on October 5, the Pope expressed his hope that the peace negotiations “will achieve the desired results as soon as possible.” He asked “those with responsibilities to commit to this path, to achieve a ceasefire and free the hostages.” He urged everyone “to remain united in prayer, so that the ongoing efforts will end the war and lead us towards a just and lasting peace.”

It remains to be seen whether Trump’s peace plan, which requires many compromises from both Hamas and Israel, will succeed beyond the exchange of hostages and prisoners.

“There are challenges to overcome,” said Seth Frantzman, a research associate at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza. For starters, Israel will be extremely wary of the proposed international military force that — according to the peace plan — is expected to disarm Hamas, maintain order in Gaza and prevent future attacks on Israel.

“From previous experiences, whether it is the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon or elsewhere, such forces tend to be ineffective,” Frantzman said. The UN force has largely stood by while Hezbollah built illegal tunnels, stockpiled weapons and launched rockets into Israel.

Furthermore, the fact that Türkiye, the country with the second-largest military in NATO, wanted to send troops to Gaza is very problematic from Israel’s perspective, Frantzman noted. “Turkey has supported Hamas in the past and is governed by a government linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. How would that deradicalize Gaza? Wouldn’t it be better if the United Arab Emirates, a moderate country that does not support Hamas, joined forces?”

Now that hostilities could cease, Frantzman expressed hope that Christian organizations could play an even more active role in providing aid to Gazans and that the Holy See would actively work to repair relations between Catholics and the many Jews who believe the Church unfairly singled out Israel’s actions during the war while downplaying Hamas’s role in the devastation of Gaza.

“It is totally understandable that the Church supports Catholics and Palestinians,” he said, but “the Church has wasted part of the decades of reconciliation between Catholics and Jews by not supporting the hostages in a more visible and even practical way, by trying to provide medical aid to the hostages.”

Pope Francis met with the families of the hostages, but was also highly critical of Israel and recommended an investigation to determine whether Israel was committing genocide, a claim the Israeli government denies.

Cardinal Pizzaballa, who has seen the suffering of both Palestinians and Israelis firsthand, day after day, hopes for a new and better chapter.

“Now we finally see something new and different. Of course, there will also be a new atmosphere for the continuation of the negotiation, also for all life inside Gaza which will remain terrible for a long time. But now we are happy and we hope that this is just the beginning of a new phase in which we can, little by little, start to think not about the war, but about how to rebuild after the war.”

Translated and adapted by the ACI Prensa team. Originally published in National Catholic Register.

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