As online bets continue to grow in the United States – mainly in sports and casino games -, betting houses have also opened markets for a variety of competitions, including the current papal conclave.
The Cardinals College is now in full conclave to choose the next pontiff, a solemn process by closed doors. This conclave has aroused world interest from both Catholics and non -Catholics, along with dozens of millions of dollars in bets about their result.
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Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency -based betting platform, is managing more than 18 million dollars in bets on the conclave. Another platform, Kalshi, manages about 6.7 million.
The Polymarket betting corridors place the Cardinal Secretary of State of the Vatican, Cardenal Pietro Parolin, as a favorite with a 27 % probability, followed by Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, with 22 %. Among the following are Matteo Zuppi with 11 %, Pierbattista Pizzaballa with 10 %, and Peter Erdo with 7 %.
The traigators can “buy” a possible chosen one – that is, bet that this person will be selected as Pope – or can “sell”, which is equivalent to betting that this cardinal will not be chosen. The specific payment of each bet depends on the probabilities set on the platform.
In Polymarket, more than 1.3 million dollars have opted for the candidacy of Cardinal Tagle, and another 1.3 million by Dutch Cardinal Willem “Wim” Eijk, whom the betting runners give him a 1 % probability. More than one million dollars have also opted for Cardinals Parolin, Peter Turkson and Robert Sarah, respectively.
The uncertainty of papal conclaves
The limited knowledge of betting and general public corridors, together with the reserved nature of the conclave process and the absence of public campaigns, contribute to uncertainty about the true chances that a specific person is chosen Pope.
Tom Nash, an apologist collaborating Catholic Answershe commented to CNA – an English assistance from Ewtn News – that it is clear who are “the best known cardinals who arrive at the conclave”, but that that does not necessarily reflect “how their classmates see them voters as papabile”.
“I think some cardinals who are well positioned according to betting and media runners, even because of the prominent role they had under Pope Francis, may actually have less possibilities than others considered less likely,” he said.
Nash recalled that, before the 2013 conclave, Cardinal Angelo Scola was “a man who many saw as the continuator of the legacy of San Juan Pablo II and Benedict XVI”, but failed to obtain the majority of two thirds required. The cardinals finally chose the then Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who took the name of Francisco.
The cardinals have already gathered for more than a week in congregations prior to the conclave, but as Nash pointed out, these are not public.
“The more public the process is, the more likely, the cardinals can be negatively influenced by different means of coercion, even by political leaders,” he said. “And several actors have tried to influence papal elections over the centuries.”
Nash recalled that the Apostolic Constitution The universe dominic of the flock 1996 asks the cardinals to refrain from receiving or sending messages outside the city of the Vatican during the electoral process, and forbids receiving newspapers, listening to the radio or watching television.
That same document prohibits any “covenant, agreement, promise or other commitment of any kind” to vote for a specific person, but does not prohibit the exchange of opinions before the election or the discussions during the conclave that help to reach a consensus.
“The congregations prior to the conclave provide cardinals with a wide opportunity to obtain the information they need from their peers,” Nash explained. “And those who try to campaign for themselves or others may be sure that they would undermine their own credibility and candidacy.”
Is it moral to bet on a papal conclave?
Some Catholics have questioned the morality of betting on the conclave.
Betting in a conclave used to be expressly prohibited by the Vatican, but that rule is no longer in force. Pope Gregory XIV prohibited “under penalty of excommunication” any commitment to the choice of a Pope or the creation of cardinals through the bull Compels us of 1591. However, a review of canon law in 1918 did not formally maintain this prohibition, and no new has been implemented.
Even so, Nash expressed his reservations about bets related to a conclave.
“I think that Catholics should consider in prayer how we can give the best testimony regarding this 2025 conclave, even because of the solemnity of the event and the possible corruption that, God does not want it, bets could introduce into the conclave,” he said.
He added: “Our actions and related comments could contribute to being the occasion of sin for others, which could have more disastrous intentions about the conclave or perhaps bet more than they can afford.”
“Although I understand that betting on a conclave is a tempting perspective, we do not want to reduce this important event at the level of a simple sports competition – even more when many American Christians and other parts of the world demonstrate a greater religious devotion for their favorite sports than to live as committed disciples of Jesus Christ,” he concluded.
According to the Catechism of the Catholic Church, the game is not intrinsically “contrary to justice.” However, it becomes “morally unacceptable when it deprives someone of what is necessary to meet their needs and those of others, or when the passion for the game brings slavery.”
Translated and adapted by ACI Press. Originally published in CNA.
Tyler Arnold
Tyler Arnold is a reporter of the National Catholic Register. He previously worked at The Center Square and has published in various media, including The Associated Press, National Review, The American Conservative and The Federalist.