After approval of the text in the Senate, the Basic Law project returned to the Chamber of Deputies. There, approval is guaranteed if the president does not insist, as he has done several times, on ignoring what his negotiators achieved with great effort.
In their desire for the initiative to fail, Kirchnerism and some allies will continue to place obstacles to – despite the imponderable risks – opening a crisis whose end is difficult to predict, as occurred during the debate in the Senate with the tumultuous and violent external pressure that , moreover, was politically toxic for its own interests. Result: there are increasingly clear signs that this tough position within Peronism is generating a lot of discussion.
Now it remains to be seen what the law will finally look like, especially in the case of privatizations – in particular that of Aerolíneas Argentinas, which would require a specific bill to be able to consolidate the vote –, Ganancias (Income Tax), which will be reestablished, and Personal Assets . The investment regime (RIGI), it seems, will come out with the changes introduced by the Senate.
In any case, the law is already taken for granted. Even the IMF understood this and in the report in which it announces a disbursement of US$800 million and praises Milei’s policy path, it makes truly worrying warnings about the program’s sustainability. Among them, about the exchange rate delay estimated at 30%, about the ability to pay the debt contracted and casts doubt on the duration of the population’s patience in relation to the adjustment. The Fund recommends paying special attention to social problems and greater consensus so that the government – and the adjustment – can expand political support.
So far, Milei has an undeniable social consensus in favor of change, but he needs to ratify this circumstance by favoring a confluence. The Chief of Gabiente (Head of the Presidency’s Civil House) Guillermo Francos, a professional politician, knows how to dance to this song, but he is alone in his efforts to build a more diverse space. Dialogue with Mauricio Macri’s PRO party, which is looking for a place to position itself, has been interrupted, and the Minister of Security in the Milei government, Patricia Bullrich, defends an unconditional merger with the president’s party.
In 2025 there will be legislative elections in Argentina. In these elections, voters are less tied to the ironclad options of the presidential election.
Milei, of course, would like part of Peronism to support his project. If they did this to Menem, why wouldn’t they do it to him? The president is still under the influence of the discovery of his own popularity, and some of his advisors read Steve Bannon – Trump’s former far-right advisor sentenced to prison in the US – more than the Argentine reality and are embarked on opening up and expanding. of a reactionary agenda.
Kirchnerism still has no other strategy than to resist Milei, trade unionism continues to focus on opening a path for dialogue and the Catholic Church, even though it denies it, has objectively entered the political discussion. Without a defined leadership, the Justicialist Party (PJ, Peronism) is trying to reduce its losses.
But there is an important political fact when thinking about the next legislative elections: political fragmentation is not just a problem for the opposition. The government is also suffering from this, as if it were a destiny or a fatality of this time. The way in which this problem is resolved will have a great influence on the immediate future.