Milei’s political dilemma

The relationship between President Javier Milei and former President Mauricio Macri is one of the political themes at the beginning of the year in Argentina. Since Milei took office at Casa Rosada, in December 2023, the distance between them had been growing and public. Milei was elected fighting what he called ‘caste’ and showing himself to be an ‘outsider’ to Argentine politics. And he had the massive support of Macri in the second round of the presidential election.

The current ministry includes names from the times when Macri was president (2015-2019), such as the ministers of Economy, Luis Caputo, and Public Security, Patricia Bullrich. In his first year of management, Milei maintained the style of his time on the platform in the race for President, with aggressive speeches against what he calls “caste” and making it clear that his main goal is to reduce the size of the State and combat inflation, leading the fiscal deficit to zero.

His dilemma now is whether to deepen his relationship with former president Mauricio Macri or follow his path alone – despite depending on Macrismo for governability, to be able to approve projects in the National Congress, where the government is a minority. “The government should leave the discussion with the PRO (party founded by Macri) and Macri himself aside,” political analyst Shila Vilker, from the Trespuntozero consultancy in Buenos Aires, told Clarín in Spanish.

Analyst Federico Aurelio, from Aresco consultancy, which is dedicated to opinion polls, touched on the point that unites Milei and Macri – former president Cristina Kirchner. “Even acting together there is no guarantee that Milei and the PRO will win the legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires, where Cristina remains strong,” said Aurelio.

Last week, after exchanging barbs, Milei sent a message to reach peace with Macri. “Together we can defeat Kirchnerism once and for all,” he said. Milei’s challenge is to maintain his speech by showing that he is the only representative of ‘anti-politics’ or to embrace it – with the statement that his role is to combat Kirchnerism, which has governed Argentina for much of the last 20 years. “An agreement between them, Milei and Macri, is complicated. If the PRO joins Milei’s A Liberdade Avança (LLA), it could disappear”, said analyst Lucas Romero, from the political consultancy Synopsis. Macrismo was important for Milei’s election.

The then presidential candidate received eight million votes in the first round and, in the second round, added the six million votes that had gone to Patricia Bullrich, who represented Macrismo in the election. To the surprise of many, Bullrich later accepted Milei’s invitation to be his Minister of Security and today is one of the key players in federal management. At the same time, she distanced herself from Macri.

Listening to a voter of former president Macri today is knowing that he is satisfied with the decline in inflation during the first year of Milei’s government. But at the same time, he rejects Milei’s aggressive speeches (sometimes with profanity), who often makes public statements against politicians, businesspeople and journalists. This week, in yet another sign of a fragile relationship, Macri’s party, PRO, released a statement criticizing the fact that the government did not include the 2025 budget project in the debates of the extraordinary sessions of the National Congress, which will be held from January 20th.

Milei governed in 2024 with the budget approved for 2023 and, last year, he postponed the discussion on the 2025 budget. But at the end of the year, through a decree, he extended Argentina’s budget for 2023 for the second consecutive year – a move unprecedented in national politics. The PRO statement states that the government has “an authoritarian vision, where there is no space for debate and joint construction”.

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