Is the next Pope in the Synod of Synodality?

ANALYSIS: About half of all cardinal electors are currently in Rome, making the Synodality Synod a kind of prelude to a future conclave.

The purpose of this month’s Synod on Synodality is to determine how to put into practice Pope Francis’ push for greater dialogue, openness and participation of the laity in the affairs of the Church. But the global meeting is also functioning as a kind of prelude to the next papal conclave.

Sixty-one cardinals meet among members with voting rights of the Synod, which means there is a good chance that the 87-year-old successor to Pope Francis will be here, right now, at the synod session.

And so are a significant number of the men who are likely to choose him, whoever he may be.

While a handful of the participating cardinals, such as Archbishop Emeritus of Boston Cardinal Seán O’Malley, cannot vote in a future conclave because they are over the 80-year-old threshold, the group still includes nearly half of the 122 cardinal electors currently eligible to vote for a new pope. That makes the month-long meeting the best time for papabili — or potential papals — to put their best foot forward.

A unique opportunity

The high probability that the next Pope will be here in Rome for the Synod is not just due to numbers. It is also a product of what the Synod of Synodality is, of how its participants were chosen and also of how Pope Francis has shaken up the typical dynamics prior to the conclave.

While some cardinals in the Synod were selected by their respective bishops’ conferences, many are here because they already lead important Vatican positions or are permanent members of the Synod of Bishops. Others were personally selected by Pope Francis, suggesting some degree of additional influence.

In other words, the red caps of the Synod stand out from the crowd of the already very distinguished College of Cardinals.

Furthermore, the Synod of Synodality is a very significant—and quite controversial—ecclesiastical event, with enormous implications for the future of the Catholic Church. It is very possible that the main question among cardinal electors in a future conclave will be how the next Pope will carry forward – or not – Pope Francis’ emblematic initiative. With that in mind, what the cardinals say or don’t say during the Synod will have an additional layer of meaning.

Finally, it is well documented that while Pope Francis has expanded the geographical composition of the College of Cardinals, he has also limited number of opportunities that its members have had to meet, exchange ideas and get to know each other, all important elements before the conclave. That makes this month’s assembly perhaps the best opportunity yet for a papal candidate to make himself, and his vision for the Church, known to a significant number of his red-hat brethren.

¿Papable in the Synod?

Among the delegates of the Synod are eligible frequently promoted as Italian Cardinal Pietro ParolinSecretary of State of the Vatican for the last 10 years. The career diplomat has risen above much of the turbulence that has marked Francis’ pontificate, although his connection to the controversial Vatican deal with China on the appointment of bishops may be a mark against him for some. A report from last year’s session suggested that Cardinal Parolin positioned himself as a moderate during the Synod in a way that could boost his conclave prospects.

Another Italian participant in the Synod who must be followed closely is the Cardenal Matteo Zuppifrom Bologna (Italy). Although he progressive, friend of traditionalists, has downplayed to the rumors of eligible above, it has some serious factors in its favor. Long associated with the influential Community of Sant’Egidio, Cardinal Zuppi has served as Pope Francis’ personal peace envoy and is president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy, which still has 13 current electors, by far the most of any country.

Of course, any discussion about a possible successor to Pope Francis would have to include the man who was once nicknamed the “Asian Francis“: he Cardinal Luis Tagle. The charismatic star of the Filipino and pro-prefect of the Vatican’s evangelization office apparently faded when Pope Francis removed him from the leadership of Caritas International in 2022. But since then, the Pope has chosen him for roles such as papal envoy to the United States National Eucharistic Congresswhich some papal observers saw as an opportunity for Cardinal Tagle “rethink your impressions”. It is likely that the Synod will be another.

Meanwhile, perhaps no papal perspective has received as much boost over the past year as that of the Cardenal Fridolin Ambongo. The Congolese cardinal rose to global prominence, and to the attention of the conclave forecasterslast December after leading Africa’s collective response to Begging for confidencewhich earned him praise from other bishops around the world. Member of Pope Francis’ cardinal advisors, Cardinal Ambongo’s leaked comments about the decadent and dying West They may have upset some prelates in Europe and North America, but the Synod may be an opportunity to smooth things over, or consolidate support among non-Western cardinals.

A different type of prospectus from Africa is the Spanish Cardinal Cristóbal López Romerowhose leadership of the Archdiocese of Rabat in Morocco makes him an intriguing multicultural possibility. Another Spanish speaker worth watching is the Primate of Mexico, the Cardinal Carlos Aguiar Retesformer president of CELAM, the episcopal conference of Latin America. The same can be said of Uruguayan Cardinal Daniel Sturla Berhouet, friend of Pope Francis which, however, distanced himself from the same-sex blessing document from the Vatican last December. In neighboring Brazil, the Cardenal Sérgio da Rocha has been an important player in CELAM and is a cardinal advisor to the Pope, although his reputation as supporter of LGBTQ advocacy can limit your appeal.

If the College of Cardinals senses that the next Pope should come from the East, the Cardenal Lazarus You Heung-SikSouth Korean prefect of the Dicastery for the Clergy, and the Cardenal Charles Maung Bo of Myanmar, former head of the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences, are two Asian prelates who will be carefully examined at the Synod.

Meanwhile, a trio of newly installed Vatican Curia heads could also use the October meeting to make their views on the universal Church more widely known to their fellow constituents: the Cardinal Claudio Gugerottian Italian who heads the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches; the prefect of the Dicastery for Culture and Education, Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonçafrom Portugal; and the American Cardinal Robert Prevostwho is not only prefect of the Dicastery for the Clergy, but also directs the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.

The papal perspectives of two figures are even more directly linked to the Synod than all the others: the Maltese Cardinal Mario Grechgeneral secretary of the Synod of Bishops; and the Luxembourg Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerichgeneral rapporteur of the Synod of Synodality. The two have had great influence on the Synod agenda and process, which will either be an important asset or a disqualifying liability in a future conclave, depending on how the cardinal electors view the whole matter.

Of course, not all possible popes are here in Rome. Two important names—the Italian Cardenal Pierbattista PizzaballaLatin Patriarch of Jerusalem; and the Hungarian Péter Erdő Cardenalpraised by conservatives—were never delegated to the Synod of Bishops, while the Cardenal singapurense William Goh He does not participate in this session after having been a delegate to the Synod last October.

Still, enough eligible are in Rome this month to make the conclave’s implications an intriguing subtext of the Synodality Synod, and, indeed, the topic could dominate among Vatican observers if the impression that the Synod will not lead to dramatic changes continues to grow.

Translated and adapted by the ACI Prensa team. Originally published in National Catholic Register.