The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its forecast for the Argentine economy, with a 3.5% drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year and a slowdown in annual inflation, which would go from 211% to 140% this year.
According to the Fund’s data, the Argentine retraction will be the largest in South America and one of the strongest among the countries associated with the organization. In the Fund’s view, the economy should recover in 2025, with a 5% increase in GDP and annual inflation of 45%. The data is part of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) released this Tuesday in Washington, United States. “Today we are seeing falling inflation in Argentina, with a monthly rate of around 3.5%. A reduction compared to the 25% index recorded in December last year”, said the Fund’s economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. With these numbers, the organization ratifies its forecasts made last June for the Argentine economy.
Ten days ago, in an article in the British Financial Times, the president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Brazilian Ilan Goldfajn, praised President Javier Milei’s government. He cited the result of Milei’s economic plan, transforming the primary deficit from 2.9% of GDP at the end of 2023 to a surplus of 1.5% of GDP at the end of August this year – the seventh month of the president’s administration. who took office in December last year. “But improving public accounts and increasing stability are only part of the story. The goals must be job creation and long-term, inclusive growth.” He suggested that an alliance between the committed public and dynamic private sectors would be a “powerful force for change”.
Currently, according to official data, Argentina recorded a strong increase in the poverty rate this year. The 41% rate, which was already very high last year, jumped to 52.9%. In this context, six out of every ten children are poor. The latest opinion polls show a drop in the president’s popularity. Milei has said that unpopularity does not worry him, that his focus is the country’s economy. And he warned that the “chainsaw” – symbol of adjustments – will be permanent in his government. He was elected with almost 56% of the vote and currently, depending on the survey, has the support of around 40% or 45% of the electorate. In the last few hours, the president intensified his style. He said he wants to see Kirchnerism, an arm of Peronism created by former presidents Nestor and Cristina Kirchner, “in the coffin” – and with Cristina inside. The statement received strong criticism in Argentina.
The fact is: economic improvement needs to arrive and be perceived by the population – today, that is not what is perceived here. The opposition, in turn, is fragmented and its image is damaged. A politician from a sector of the Radical Civic Union (UCR) party, which supports the government and its adjustments, said that “it is too difficult to support Milei’s attacks”, such as the one with the coffin for the opposition. This Tuesday, on her birthday, Milei appeared on the balcony of Casa Rosada. He saw a protest by students and retirees against him and his government in front, in Praça de Mayo.