How do Germany and China try to influence the 2025 conclave?

Analysis: The latest measures of the German Synodal road and the Chinese Communist Party clearly seek to influence what will happen within the Sistine Chapel, but could they be counterproductive?

A conclave, a word that comes from the Italian and that means “key”, is literally isolated from the outside world, but that does not mean that the voter cardinals do not keep present the events that occur beyond the Sistine Chapel at the beginning of its isolation period.

Two issues that will probably be in the minds of the 133 cardinals when the conclave begins on May 7 are the blessings for same -sex people of the Catholic Church in Germany and the agreement between the Vatican and China.

This is no accident. It is the result of a couple of recent events that occurred outside Rome and that, without a doubt, will influence the conversations that are being carried out in the Vatican right now, and in the votes that will be cast in less than a week.

First, on April 23, just two days after the death of Pope Francis, the German Episcopal Conference published a guide for ceremonies of blessing couples in irregular situations, including same -sex unions.

Getting the formal blessing of same -sex couples has long been an objective of the very criticized German campaign of the Synod Camino, and this last measure contradicts the Supplicans fiducia, the 2023 Vatican guideline on the subject, which only allows the spontaneous blessing of people who maintain same sexual relations, not the legitimation of the couple’s condition.

Then, despite not having a Pope who ratified the episcopal appointments, the Chinese authorities “chose” two new bishops on April 28, including one in a diocese already directed by a bishop recognized by the Vatican.

This fact is the last of a series of questionable results since the Vatican signed in 2018 an agreement to participate in a joint process with the Chinese government on episcopal appointments, an agreement that the Vatican has recognized that it has been subject to repeated abuses, but that, however, it was renewed in 2024.

At this stage of the selection process of the next Pope, it is difficult to imagine that any of these events has occurred without those responsible had the intention of influencing the conclave.

The interregnum – which in Latin means “between reigns” – is a period in which much of the institutional life of the Church is paralyzed. The bosses of the Vatican dicasteries cease in their positions, the canonization processes are suspended and the appointment of new papal diplomats stops temporarily. Any movement during this period is not accidental; It acquires greater importance and is intended to have an impact.

In fact, the period between the death of the Pope and the beginning of the confinement in the conclave is usually marked by intense efforts to influence papal voters, either through media campaigns or provocations, such as those from Germany and China.

And not without reason: there is good evidence that events in the days before a conclave can influence who emerges dressed in white.

For example, in 2013, it was widely believed that the papal perspectives of Cardinal Angelo Scola were affected after the Italian police raided the offices of their archdiocese as part of an investigation of corruption that involved one of the former associates of Cardinal Milanés, just hours before the concalave began on March 12.

And in 1914, the papal conclave began just three days after the outbreak of World War I, possibly influencing the cardinals to choose the experienced Cardinal diplomat Giacomo della Chiesa, who became Pope Benedict XV.

In fact, the possibility that cardinals are too influenced by the events and pressure campaigns that precede the conclave has led some to suggest that they should be locked immediately after the death of a Pope.

In Germany, the message to the cardinals votes seems clear: the synodal road does not lose rhythm and would do well to choose a pontiff willing to “meet the Germans where they are”, something that is every time it is beyond the reach of Catholic orthodoxy.

As for China, the measure could aim to consolidate its dominant position in the agreement with the Vatican, which makes any setback seem too risky for Chinese Catholics. At the same time, an analyst considers that China’s attempt to sow discontent among the cardinals for the agreement is a strategy to undermine the papal perspectives of his most associated man, the Secretary of State of Pope Francis, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, in order to ascend to Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle.

If true, China is not the only one that attempts to undermine the position of Cardinal Parolin just before the conclave. The Italian prelate has been the subject of several negative representations in the media this week, including those of two progressive Catholics in the United States.

As for the measures adopted by Germany and China, both can be seen as attempts to limit the voters and the man they choose to be the next pontiff.

Of course, they could have the opposite effect. This type of ecclesiastical bravery could incite the cardinals voting to favor a more arranged Pope than Pope Francis to confront German intransigence and Chinese intimidation.

Francisco valued the dialogue with both the synodal road activists and with the apparatus (Leaders) of the Chinese Communist Party, convinced that progress only occurs when the dialogue is maintained. However, after these last events, it is now easier to argue among the cardinals that this approach has not paid the desired fruits.

A new line of action – perhaps less willing to accept breaches of agreements or transfer too strict limits – could be favored by the voters, which would ironically lead to the opposite result to which the leaders of the German Church and Chinese officials could have intended.

Of course, perhaps that confrontation is what China – or not the German bishops – ultimately seeks.

While the reasons and their real impact may not be clear, the reorganizations of the vacancy by Germany and China certainly intend to affect the conclave. And as the confinement of the 133 voters approaches, the efforts to influence the perspectives they bring to the Sistine Chapel can be hoped.

Translated and adapted by the ACI Press team. Originally published in the National Catholic Register.