According to the results of a new EWTN News / RealClear Opinion Research poll, two months before the presidential election in the United States, Vice President Kamala Harris leads among Catholic voters against former President Donald Trump.
The survey, conducted from August 28 to 30, consulted 1,000 Catholics and has a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
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Catholic voters, like the majority of the electorate, consider the economy to be by far the most pressing issue facing the country and oppose underage sex reassignment surgeries and transgender men competing in women’s sports. . They are divided on the question of who should set policy on abortion, US support for Ukraine and Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
The results also reveal a significant gender gap among Catholic voters. According to the results, 50% of Catholic voters currently support Harris for president, while 43% support Trump and 6% are undecided. Harris is also ahead of Trump among Latino Catholic voters, leading the former president 60% to 30%, but with 9% undecided.
This is important given the growing size and influence of Latinos in American Catholicism. The vice president also leads Trump among African-American Catholic voters (82% to 12%) and Asian Catholic voters (58% to 35%). Trump leads white, non-Hispanic Catholic voters by a margin of 52% to 42%.
Likewise, Harris leads the former president in all age groups, with her biggest lead among Catholic voters ages 30 to 39 and 40 to 49.
Curiously, his smallest margin is among Catholic voters aged 18 to 29, Generation-Z (many of whom will vote for the first time in 2024), where he maintains a statistically insignificant advantage of 44% to 43%.
Among Catholic voters, she has also so far managed to avoid the damage of President Joe Biden’s low job approval rating, currently at 49% disapprove to 41% approve, while 10% are neutral.
A Catholic gender gap
Especially notable is the gender gap that has emerged among Catholic voters. Catholic women voters support Harris over Trump by 56% to 37%, while Catholic voters favor Trump by 49% to 43%.
Similarly, in the generic vote for control of Congress, 49% of Catholics support the Democratic candidate, while 41% support the Republican candidate. Catholic female voters, for their part, favor the Democratic candidate 54% to 35%, while male Catholic voters support the Republican 48% to 43%.
The gender gap exists on many other issues. Both men and women consider the economy to be by far the most pressing issue of the elections: 51% overall, 54% women and 48% men. But the second most important issue for female Catholic voters is abortion, at almost 13% (compared to 6% of male Catholic voters).
Border security and immigration are second in importance to male Catholic voters, at 17% (compared to 9.5% of female Catholic voters). Among all Catholic voters, after the economy, the next most important issues are border security and immigration, at 13%, and abortion, at 10%.
When asked who should be responsible for setting policy on abortion: state legislatures, the federal government, or neither, 45% of Catholic women voters say neither, compared to 28%. % of Catholic men. Overall, Catholics in the post-Roe v. Wade era are divided on the issue: a plurality of voters (38%) think neither the state legislature nor the federal government should be responsible for setting policy on the issue. abortion, 34% think state legislatures should be responsible, and 29% say the federal government should be responsible.
Divided into key issues
Similar divisions among Catholic voters are visible when it comes to some of the most important foreign policy issues. When asked how Israel is carrying out its response to the savage Hamas attack on October 7, 41% consider it somewhat or totally acceptable, while 39% consider it somewhat or totally unacceptable. 20% are not sure.
Regarding the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, 37% of Catholic voters think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, 36% think it is giving about the right amount of support, and 28% say The United States is not providing enough support, meaning a plurality of more than two-thirds of Catholic voters favors US support for Ukraine.
As for China, only 6% think it poses no threat, and nearly half consider it an important or serious threat.
The areas of greatest agreement extend to some of the most controversial cultural issues. Half (50%) of Catholic voters oppose puberty blockers/same-sex hormone treatments or surgical procedures for minors, while 14% support both procedures, 7% support surgical procedures, and 7% support puberty blockers.
A majority of Catholic voters (67%) also think athletes who were born male but now identify as girls or women should not be able to compete in women’s sports and athletics, while 18% say yes; 15% are not sure.
56% of Catholic voters favor the death penalty for a person convicted of murder, while 23% are opposed and 21% are unsure.
Mass attendance and Catholic voters
The survey also found that when it comes to Mass attendance, 12% of American Catholics attend Mass daily or more than once a week, 31% once a week, 16% once or twice a month, 32% a few times a year, and 9% once a year.
Harris leads among all categories of Catholics who attend Mass, except among those who attend daily Mass, who support Trump by 55% to 30%.
Unlike the results of previous polls among Catholics, at least in this unusual election, regular attendance at Mass or adherence to Church doctrine may no longer be an indication that voters will choose the Republican presidential candidate.
Additionally, this is the most volatile presidential election in modern American political history, and this first poll was conducted immediately after the Democratic National Convention.
It also comes well before the first presidential debate scheduled for September 10, and other events between now and November 5 could have a substantial impact on the race, such as another international crisis or Trump’s felony sentencing hearing. in a New York court on September 18.
According to national polls, the race is extraordinarily close, with the candidates tied both nationally and in each of the battleground states. In that environment, every vote is necessary, and Catholic voters will play a key role in deciding the next occupant of the White House.
EWTN News and RealClear Opinion Research will continue to track the attitudes of Catholic voters until Election Day.
Translated and adapted by the ACI Prensa team. Originally published in CNA.
Matthew Bunson
Matthew Bunson is vice president and editorial director of EWTN News. For the past 20 years, Dr. Bunson has been active in the area of social communications and Catholic education, including writing, editing and teaching on a variety of topics related to Church history, the papacy, the saints and Catholic culture.