Analysis: Why the next conclave will be a decisive step for Europe

ANALYSIS: Although the Old Destaining Continent seems to be irrelevant in view of the current displacement of the church leadership towards the southern hemisphere, its cardinals will maintain, however, a key role in the upcoming deliberations.

When they enter the Sistine Chapel to choose the successor to the throne of Pedro, European cardinals will carry on their shoulders a heavy responsibility for the fate of their continent, which faces unprecedented challenges from the church of the first centuries. At a time when some postulate that Europe could lose relevance due to the growing prominence of the global southern – where the Church grows faster – it remains, as its center of institutional and theological gravity, a key actor in the result of the conclave.

Since currently 53 of the 135 voters come from Europe (one third of which are Italian), their collective priorities and concerns will influence not only the choice of the next Pope, but also in the direction of the Church in a world that changes rapidly.

However, it is increasingly evident that the European bloc is no longer united. The divisions on the legacy of Pope Francis’s reforms and the Church’s response to the various manifestations of secularism reflect deep cultural and theological divisions. European cardinals will face a difficult balance: preserve the traditional teachings and identity of the Church and, at the same time, adapt to new social realities.

Address secularism, sexual abuse and divisions in the church

One of the most pressing concerns for them will be generalized secularism and the drastic loss of religious influence in Europe. Once heart of Christianity, Europe now has countries where those who They affirm Not having religion are a majority. Mass assistance has decreased dramatically since the 1970s, and the moral influence of the Church in public life has been practically annulled, especially in countries such as France and Germany. The need to address the growing challenges to religious institutions and religious freedom in these secular societies, where the movements Provide legally operate but face a growing social and political pressure that threatens their participation in public discourse, could be a key priority for many of them.

These alarming trends are accompanied by a new and significant phenomenon: the spectacular increase in the number of baptisms of young adults during Easter celebrations in some countries of the old continent, including France, England and Belgium. The need to properly accompany this phenomenon to bear long -term fruits should not go unnoticed by cardinal electors, especially considering that the bishops of France have just announced the celebration of a provincial council to face the challenges of the new catechumen from Pentecost of 2026.

The cardinals will seek a pontiff capable of inspiring the respect of European leaders and addressing younger generations in search of moral and identity referents, in a way adapted to language and current codes.

In addition, the sexual abuse crisis remains a serious injury in the European Church. The scandals in Germany, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy have seriously damaged public trust. While Pope Francis introduced some reforms, many European cardinals believe that more decisive measures are needed. Some will promote greater transparency and accountability, while others could be more cautious when addressing deeper structural reforms, for fear that they can create a climate of excessive suspicion and, ultimately, undermine the priesthood and church authority, or even endanger the secret of confession.

The question of the lasting unit of the Catholic Church was also raised by the recent German Synodal path (2019-2023) and the plans to make it a permanent synodal council, which questioned some fundamental doctrinal teachings of the Church about sexuality, female ordination and secular preaching, which generated tensions with the Vatican. The Synod of Sinodality, initiated by Pope Francis between 2021 and 2024, has even more revealed the growing divisions between European bishops on the degree of authority that national churches must have in the configuration of Catholic practice, which will be another reason for unavoidable concern.

At the same time, the redefinition of current political movements throughout Europe, marked in particular by the emergence of right -wing populist parties, will undoubtedly have an impact on the life of national churches. Since many of these new leaders openly claim their Christian faith and their sympathy for the Catholic Church, many cardinals could bow to a Pope who can skillfully dialogue with them and thus maintain the influence of the Holy See without compromising their independence and universality.

Finally, the future application of the Moving Proper Tradition Guardswhich imposed severe restrictions on the celebration of the traditional Mass in Latin. This has resulted in many tensions between the hierarchy of the Church and the local communities, which are often formed by young people: the future of Christianity.

3 main blocks

These contrasted dynamics have encouraged the emergence of three main blocks that will shape the approach of the voters for the conclave.

The reformist bloc or “pro-Francisco” seeks the continuity of the pastoral approach of the Argentine Pope, mainly focused on mercy, social justice and interreligious dialogue. This group is open to reforms on issues such as the inclusion of same -sex couples, access to communion for divorced couples who have married and a greater participation of the laity. They also favor greater promotion of ecumenism and dialogue with Islam. Cardinals such as the Italian Matteo Zuppi, the Portuguese José Tolentino de Mendonça (also prefect of Dicastery for Culture and Education), the Frenchman Jean-Marc Aveline and the Polish Grzegorz Ryś are among them. They are likely to press for a greater implication of the Church with modern society.

The conservative block, on the other hand, prioritizes doctrinal clarity and moral coherence on pastoral flexibility. This group sees with caution decentralization and doctrinal evolution, considering these changes a threat to the unity and historical authority of the Church. They will probably advocate for a clarification and a review of the various Moving own of Pope Francis, who have been perceived as confusing by the institutional church and the faithful, such as pointed out Recently the Italian Vaticanista Andrea Gagliarducci. Cardinals such as Gerhard Müller of Germany, Péter Erdő of Hungary or Wim Eijk of Holland represent outstanding figures in this group.

A final block, which could be defined as institutional stabilizers, focuses on the governance and internal stability of the Vatican. This group seeks to balance tradition and pastoral flexibility without introducing large structural changes. Cardinals such as the Italian Pietro Parolin, current Secretary of State of the Holy See; the Swiss Kurt Koch, prefect of the Dicasterio for the promotion of the unity of Christians; and the Italian Claudio Gugerotti, Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches, are located within this faction. Whether progressive or conservatives, these profiles are considered essentially pragmatic and will probably support a pontiff capable of joining the various factions within the Church and restoring the credibility of the Vatican without introducing disruptive reforms.

A final block, which could be defined as institutional stabilizers, focuses on the governance and internal stability of the Vatican. This group seeks to balance tradition and pastoral flexibility without introducing large structural changes. Cardinals such as the Italian Pietro Parolin, current Secretary of State of the Holy See; the Swiss Kurt Koch, prefect of the Dicasterio for the promotion of the unity of Christians; and the Italian Claudio Gugerotti, Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches, are located within this faction. Whether progressive or conservatives, these profiles are considered essentially pragmatic and will probably support a pontiff capable of joining the various factions within the Church and restoring the credibility of the Vatican without introducing disruptive reforms.

Preserve the institutional weight of Europe

It is likely that European cardinals with the right to vote, 17 of them Italians, strive to maintain their influence on the Vatican government, since a new Pope from the Global South could further consolidate the cultural change initiated by Pope Francis. His challenge will be, therefore, to find a Pope who can preserve the institutional weight of Europe without compromising the growing impulse of the south.

Although the next Pope is not European, the vote of European cardinals will have a significant weight. They seek, as the new successor of St. Peter, a man capable of reinforcing doctrinal clarity and restoring the credibility of the Church, while responding to the new social and political realities without distancing himself from the key features. It is likely that no candidate meets all these criteria, but the priorities of European cardinals will greatly influence the agenda of the next Pope. There is much at stake, since a loss of consolidated European influence over time could definitely change the face of the universal church.

Translated and adapted by the ACI Press team. Originally published in the National Catholic Register.